BRN surges amid geopolitical risks, OPEC+ delays meeting

• BRN rises on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire accusations
   
• OPEC+ postpones meeting, set for December 5
   
• Markets anticipate a further delay in raising production limits
   
• Global demand uncertainty, amid China’s economic uncertainty
   
• U.S. may increase oil production under President Trump

Brent prices surged amid renewed supply concerns after Israel and Hezbollah exchanged accusations of ceasefire violations. These accusations, coming just one day after the ceasefire began, heightened the risk premium in oil markets.

Adding to the uncertainty, OPEC+ postponed its meeting, leaving investors anxiously awaiting the group’s next decision on production policy.

OPEC+—a coalition of 23 major oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia—controls roughly one-third of the world’s oil supply.

The meeting has been rescheduled for Thursday, December 5.
 

Markets expect OPEC+ to delay raising its production ceiling for the third time this year.

Such a move would reflect ongoing uncertainties around global demand, particularly as China’s economic recovery struggles to gain traction.

Meanwhile, the U.S. may increase its oil production next year under President Trump, adding another layer of complexity to the global supply-demand balance.

So, what to expect?

Brent has remained subdued in the lower-$70 range in the lead-up to the postponed OPEC+ meeting.

Markets appear to be pricing in reports that planned production hikes will likely be postponed once again as the group seeks to bolster oil prices.

OPEC+ may opt to maintain current production levels until China’s economic recovery gains more solid footing and clarity emerges around future U.S. oil output.
 

However, if OPEC+ surprises markets by deciding to move forward with output increases in the new year, oil benchmarks could tumble, potentially triggering a price war as the coalition defends its share of the global market.